Cogent Treasury Solutions

FX DAILY REPORT – 10 October 2024

  • The Rand opened weaker against all the majors this morning.
  • The USD strengthened following the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes yesterday. The minutes revealed that Fed members agreed to not lock themselves into an aggressive easing path, reinforcing expectations that the upcoming rate cut in November will likely be limited to 25 basis points.
  • The EUR struggles as investors increase bets that the ECB will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points before the end of the year, with the next rate cut of 25 basis points this month.
  • The main event for today will be the US CPI inflation results, a bigger decline than expected could result in the USD weakening as bets for a 50-basis point rate cut may increase.

Todays Events:

 

  • South African Gold Production (YoY) at 11:30 – Previous months result was -3.5% growth. A higher than previous result can be seen as positive for the ZAR.
  • South African Mining Production (YoY) at 11:30 – Previous months result was -1.4% growth. A higher than previous result can be seen as positive for the ZAR.
  • South African Manufacturing Production (MoM) at 13:00 – Previous months result was 2.1% growth. A higher than previous result can be seen as positive for the ZAR.
  • US CPI Inflation (YoY) at 14:30 – Expected to decline to 2.3% from previous months 2.5%. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the USD.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims at 14:30 – Expected to increase to 231K from previous weeks 225K. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as negative for the USD.