FX DAILY REPORT – 11 October 2024
- The Rand opened weaker against all the majors this morning.
- The USD weakened yesterday following the release of CPI and Initial Jobless Claims. CPI (YoY) came in at 2.4%, slightly above the expected 2.3% but still lower than last months 2.5%, confirming that inflation is still easing.
- US Initial Jobless Claims came out higher than expected at 258K which signals that the labour market is still struggling and suggests that the Feds will continue cutting interest rates.
- Local South African data released yesterday was mixed. Mining Production rose 0.3% (YoY) while Manufacturing Production (YoY) fell 1.2%. These results failed to spark a significant market reaction.
- Current market expectations for central bank rate cuts:
- US: Expected to cut 25 basis points (7th November)
- Eurozone: Expected to cut 25 basis points (17th October)
- UK: Expected to cut 25 basis points (7th November)
- South Africa: Expected to cut 25 basis points (21st November)
Todays Events:
- UK GDP (MoM) at 8:00 – Expected to grow 0.2% from previous months 0.0%. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the GBP.
- German CPI inflation (YoY) at 8:00 – Expected to grow 1.6% from previous months 1.9%. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the EUR.
- US PPI (MoM) at 14:30 – Expected to grow 0.1% from previous months 0.2%. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the USD.
- US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 16:00 – Expected to rise to 70.4 from previous months 70.1. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the USD.